https://bpleon.com/ Essays and research notes on public markets. en-us https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-08-17.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-08-17.html Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Jobs, inflation, retail spending, and sentiment all weakened. Long yields, oil, and near-term inflation expectations did not. Five wires graded, the open gate still unbought, and the retailers cross-examine the retail print. Charts inside. https://bpleon.com/next-dollar-02-2026-08-14.html https://bpleon.com/next-dollar-02-2026-08-14.html Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:00:00 -0700 The CPI branch fired cool, the 30-year cleared at 2001 prices, the gates re-armed — and the authorized buy went untaken. The honest accounting, the duration stance retiring on schedule, and the repair. Charts inside. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-08-10.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-08-10.html Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Nine days after three Fed dissents FOR a hike, July payrolls printed negative. The story of the week the regime cracked — the gates we didn't walk through, AMD's lesson about price, and the two endings already written for Wednesday's CPI. Five charts. https://bpleon.com/china-memory-2026-08-04.html https://bpleon.com/china-memory-2026-08-04.html Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:00:00 -0700 CXMT displaced ICBC in one trading day and knocked a trillion dollars off global chip stocks. We hold memory. So we underwrote the fear properly: what China's champion actually makes, what it can't make yet, and the two tripwires that would change our mind. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-08-03.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-08-03.html Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:00:00 -0700 A 9-3 hawkish hold, the 30-year's first close above 5.2% since 2007, a capex week that paid Microsoft and punished everyone else — and the Micron exit that finally executed itself: ~+53% blended, twelve weeks, ledger closed. The wires reset for jobs, the minutes, and the war-oil CPI. https://bpleon.com/next-dollar-01-2026-07-31.html https://bpleon.com/next-dollar-01-2026-07-31.html Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:00:00 -0700 The exit funded a question. This note opens the deployment series: the hurdle (cash yields 4% and the equity cushion is roughly zero), the framework (correlation budget + the self-funded-capex axis), five lanes surveyed honestly, and the dated gates that decide when money moves. https://bpleon.com/mu-close-2026-07-30.html https://bpleon.com/mu-close-2026-07-30.html Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:00:00 -0700 CXMT debuted +466%, the complex shed $1T, Micron touched $705 — and the broker stop placed after the confession had already sold the runner at ~$900. The call closes at ~+53%: the exact floor the system promised. Final ledger inside. https://bpleon.com/mu-stop-2026-07-21.html https://bpleon.com/mu-stop-2026-07-21.html Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:00:00 -0700 The stop fired July 16. We didn't sell — and today Micron ripped 12.2%. The violation is ahead of the rule tonight. Ahead is not the same as right: the process failure, graded in public, with the tighter line that replaces it. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-07-20.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-07-20.html Mon, 20 Jul 2026 09:00:00 -0700 The graded ledger: a cool CPI the note pre-answered, a toolmaker paid and a spender punished, memory in a bear market — and the $900 Micron rule that fired without being followed. The violation is graded F in the stop note. Now the capex gate opens: Alphabet Wednesday. https://bpleon.com/asml-initiation-2026-07-15.html https://bpleon.com/asml-initiation-2026-07-15.html Wed, 15 Jul 2026 09:00:00 -0700 We waited for the air-pocket, bought the crash at $1,752.87, and this morning's Q2 print proved it: a beat above the top of guidance and the third full-year raise in six months, to 43-45 billion euros. Initiating at ACCUMULATE, PW target ~$2,000. Add-zone $1,550-1,650 — do not chase. https://bpleon.com/mu-rollercoaster-2026-07-14.html https://bpleon.com/mu-rollercoaster-2026-07-14.html Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:00:00 -0700 A $55 whipsaw on no news, a fresh $1,750 KeyBanc upgrade, and our ~$1,100 target — the low end of a range that tops out at $2,000, level with Goldman's Neutral. The argument isn't demand; it's what Micron keeps. ASML settles it tomorrow. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-07-13.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-07-13.html Mon, 13 Jul 2026 09:00:00 -0700 The Warsh minutes floated a June hike, yields broke our levels while the auctions stopped through, the Iran ceasefire collapsed, and Micron pierced $900 intraday but never on a close — then SK hynix raised $26.5B and memory rallied. The graded ledger, and the loaded week: CPI, five banks, and Warsh's debut testimony in one morning. https://bpleon.com/mu-reckoning-2026-07-08.html https://bpleon.com/mu-reckoning-2026-07-08.html Wed, 08 Jul 2026 09:00:00 -0700 A world-record $58.4B profit couldn't lift memory — Micron made a new low while Nvidia rose. We cut the target to ~$1,100 and explain why we bought the basket, not more Micron. https://bpleon.com/mu-bounce-2026-07-06.html https://bpleon.com/mu-bounce-2026-07-06.html Mon, 06 Jul 2026 09:00:00 -0700 UBS +32% Q3 DRAM, BofA's healthy reset at $1,550, Citi's upside watch, Samsung's record print due Tuesday — and Micron still bounced least. The SKHY debut Friday is the test, and we initiated ASML. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-07-06.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-07-06.html Mon, 06 Jul 2026 09:00:00 -0700 A soft, strange jobs print took the September hike off the table. Meta's excess-compute move cratered memory — for now — while the spenders rallied. The honest grades, the unwind, and the week of the first Warsh minutes and the SK hynix debut. https://bpleon.com/mu-unwind-2026-07-02.html https://bpleon.com/mu-unwind-2026-07-02.html Thu, 02 Jul 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Two days, −15.5%, and the whole blowout pop is gone. The unwind was memory-shaped, not market-shaped. The catalysts, the collar the market ignored, the honest re-rate, and the $900 line. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-29.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-29.html Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0700 MU printed a record $41.5B with a $50B next-quarter guide and $100B of contracted demand. It ripped while megacap tech sagged on AI costs. The supplier-vs-spender split, the jobs print Thursday under a hawkish Fed, and a first look at quantum. https://bpleon.com/mu-fq3-reaction-2026-06-28.html https://bpleon.com/mu-fq3-reaction-2026-06-28.html Sun, 28 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0700 We said priced-and-likely-to-fade. It ripped 16% to a record. What we got wrong, why the scale-out still won, and the SCA collar that re-rates the thesis from $1,100 toward $1,500. https://bpleon.com/mu-fq3-eve-2026-06-23.html https://bpleon.com/mu-fq3-eve-2026-06-23.html Tue, 23 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0700 MU set a record high the day before its biggest print and the whole sell-side finally caught up. The bar moved with the price. The in-quarter beat is priced; the FQ4 guide and HBM4 ASPs decide the tape. PT stays $1,100; the $1,100 trim trigger hit June 18. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-19.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-19.html Fri, 19 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0700 The hawkish-hold call died on the 2-year (+16bp, biggest Fed-day jump since 2008). Dots flipped to a 2026 hike. We own the miss. Then equities shrugged it off by Thursday. The week, graded. https://bpleon.com/spacex-initiation-2026-06-16.html https://bpleon.com/spacex-initiation-2026-06-16.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Largest IPO ever; ~111x sales; losing $4.9B a year. Initiating at HOLD, fair value ~$115, target $135. The melt-up we refused to chase has already round-tripped 26%. Starlink earns it, xAI burns it. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-16.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-16.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0700 A three-year-high CPI got overrun by an Iran peace deal that collapsed oil to the low $80s. S&P rallied to ~7,550, 10Y fell to ~4.4%. Wednesday, the new Fed Chair debuts with a hawkish hold the market has already priced. The pain trade is up. https://bpleon.com/dell-initiation-2026-06-09.html https://bpleon.com/dell-initiation-2026-06-09.html Tue, 09 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0700 The re-rate ran 9× to 24× before the earnings did the work. Initiating at HOLD, accumulation ladder $320 / $285 / $250, PW reference ~$340. The Street's $484 average PT is our bull case. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-08.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-08.html Mon, 08 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Broadcom's outlook + a hot 172K NFP cracked the rally. S&P closed Friday at 7,383.74, down 2.6% on the week. NVDA -13% from peak. Dell tested the bottom of our consolidation zone. Iran reignites today. CPI Wednesday is the next gate. https://bpleon.com/mu-june-outlook-2026-05-31.html https://bpleon.com/mu-june-outlook-2026-05-31.html Sun, 31 May 2026 09:00:00 -0700 MU ran 38% in 17 trading days. June stops being about narrative and starts being about numbers. FQ3 prints June 24 — $33.5B / 81% GM / $19.15 EPS. PT stays at $1,100. Trim ladder continues.